Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 071903
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
303 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation section for 18z TAFs.

No significant forecast changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for portions of NE
NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

2) A backdoor cold front drops through the region
tonight. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of it.

3) Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather returning by late
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is an Increased Fire Danger Statement for
portions of NE NC from 10 AM to 8 PM today.

Ongoing drought conditions, lack of widespread wetting rain leading
to low soil moisture, and abnormally dry dead fuels have led to high
levels of fire danger in Northeast North Carolina. Additionally,
there is lower moisture content in live coastal fuels. These factors
are combined with hot temperatures today  abnormally low RH values
(25-35%). An IFD has been issued per the request of the NC Forest
Service.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front approaches the area today, bringing
a chance for afternoon and evening showers and storms.

Latest analysis places the approaching cold front near the PA/MD
border, its parent low up near Maine. Convection has yet to initiate
for the most part with the exception of a small storm off the
northern neck as of 19z. Satellite imagery presents multiple
areas of cu across the local area, but convective development
does not seem imminent for the most part. Latest guidance
points to a later start time around 20- 21z. Location and
coverage still looks pretty similar to the last couple of
forecast packages with storms starting out in the central
piedmont (40-50% PoPs) before spreading ESE/SE with time. Chance
PoPs (25-45%) shift south after 00z, gradually tapering off
through about 2am tonight. Will note that there remains a low-
end potential for a few strong to severe storms. Surface heating
will provide steep low level lapse rates. MLCAPE as of latest
mesoanalysis is sitting between 500-1000 J/kg and projected to
increase to around 1000 J/kg closer to storm initiation. The
main threat would be damaging wind gusts. The SPC has placed
most of the area in a Marginal Risk with the exception of the MD
Eastern Shore. Given the isolated-scattered nature of the
convection, not everyone will see rain. However, a few locations
could receive 0.25-0.5"+.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler Monday and Tuesday with hot weather
returning by late week.

The cold front cross south of the local area tonight with high
pressure building in behind it. Onshore flow develops on Mon
with gusts up to 20-25 mph possible along the coast, which will
keep temps a lot cooler at the coast. Highs likely won`t reach
above the upper 60s at Ocean City, MD with temps struggling to
warm above 70F at Virginia Beach. Temps will be a bit warmer
farther inland with highs in the low- mid 80s for most away from
the coast. However, will note that some model guidance such as
the NAM have most of the area in the upper 70s with around 80F
mainly confined to west of I-95. While this solution may be too
cool, temps could continue to trend cooler. Similar temps are
expected Tue, though a bit warmer. Additionally, with a ~1023mb
high centering over the Eastern Shore Mon night, much cooler
temps are possible Mon night into Tue morning. Widespread lows
Mon night/Tue morning in the mid 50s are likely with the
potential for upper 40s across mainly the Eastern Shore.

The cooler weather will be brief with much warmer temps arriving
by late week as an upper level ridge builds over the Eastern
CONUS. While exact details regarding temps will likely change as
we get closer, mid-upper 90s appear possible by Thu-Fri.
Additionally, the late week period into the weekend could be
unsettled as well with daily chance of showers/storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 205 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z/07 TAF period with only
brief instances of MVFR possible if showers/storms end up
impacting terminals. Still expected isolated to widely scattered
showers across the piedmont later this afternoon, progressing
across southern portions of the area later tonight. Based on
latest radar and satellite trends, the 18z TAFs do have later
start times for the Prob30 groups than the 12z TAFs. As of 18z,
there has been no convective development. Winds become light and
variable as a backdoor front drops through the region, then turn
to the NE behind the front early tomorrow.

Outlook...High pressure builds across New England in the wake
of the cold front Monday/Tuesday with VFR conditions expected.
High pressure shifts offshore Wednesday/Thursday with a low chance
of mainly diurnal showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front is forecast to cross the coast late tonight  followed
by a period of NE/onshore flow late tonight and potential Small ht
Craft Advisory conditions, especially in the southern through
midweek. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the lower
Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, and the nearshore Atlantic
coastal waters south of Chincoteague.

Latest analysis reveals a weak cold front draped just north of the
local waters as of this writing. A subtle prefrontal trough is in
place across the waters, with winds W-NW ~5-10 kt over the northern
waters, and E-SE 5-10 kt over the lower bay and southern coastal
waters. The front still looks to get nudged south this evening, and
crosses the waters late tonight into Monday morning. Winds becoming
N-NE  post-frontal, eventually increasing to 15-20 kt in the
southern Ches Bay and coastal waters toward sunrise Monday morning.
In-house wind probs still showing a 70-90% Probability of reaching
18-20 kt sustained winds in the lower Chesapeake Bay and adjacent
lower James River Monday morning into the mid-afternoon hours, and
have accordingly issued SCA for these areas. SCA begins late tonight
and runs into early Monday evening. SCA was also issued for the
Atlantic nearshore coastal zones south of Chincoteague for tomorrow
afternoon and evening, mainly for building 4-6 ft seas offshore.
Conditions in the upper Ches Bay and the Currituck Sound are a bit
more marginal, and will need to be monitored for short-fused/brief
SCA for brief surges of NNE winds after 09z/5am late tonight/early
Mon morning.

High pressure builds down the coast later Monday into Tuesday,
maintaining onshore flow. Ridging moves offshore by midweek with SE
and S winds returning to the region. Another period of marginal SCA
conditions is possible late Wednesday into Thursday, as southerly
flow strengthens between high pressure offshore and lee troughing
over inland areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

         6/7
RIC   100/2008
ORF   101/2008
SBY    97/2008
ECG    99/2008

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ013>017-030>032-102.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ632-
     634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EDT Monday for ANZ639.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ652-654-656-658.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AC/RMM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...MAM
CLIMATE...RMM