Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 4 Miles NE Chesapeake VA
National Weather Service Forecast for:
4 Miles NE Chesapeake VA
Issued by: National Weather Service Wakefield, VA |
Updated: 2:02 pm EST Dec 30, 2024 |
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Tonight
Mostly Clear
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Tuesday
Sunny then Chance Showers
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Tuesday Night
Slight Chance Showers then Partly Cloudy
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New Year's Day
Sunny
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Wednesday Night
Clear
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Thursday
Sunny
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Thursday Night
Mostly Clear
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Friday
Partly Sunny
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Friday Night
Mostly Clear
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Lo 41 °F |
Hi 69 °F |
Lo 45 °F |
Hi 57 °F |
Lo 33 °F |
Hi 49 °F |
Lo 30 °F |
Hi 48 °F |
Lo 27 °F |
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Tonight
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Mostly clear, with a low around 41. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Tuesday
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A chance of showers, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Light southeast wind becoming south 8 to 13 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. |
Tuesday Night
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A slight chance of showers before 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. West wind 10 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
New Year's Day
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Sunny, with a high near 57. West wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Clear, with a low around 33. West wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. |
Thursday
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Sunny, with a high near 49. |
Thursday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 30. |
Friday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 48. |
Friday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 27. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 40. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 24. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 41. |
Sunday Night
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A chance of snow. Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Monday
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A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 4 Miles NE Chesapeake VA.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
943
FXUS61 KAKQ 302000
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
300 PM EST Mon Dec 30 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild weather continues through New Year`s Eve with cooler weather
arriving after New Year`s Day. Scattered showers are possible
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Otherwise, remaining mostly
dry through Sunday with unsettled weather possible Sunday night into
Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1230 PM EST Monday...
Key Message:
- Cooler and dry tonight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Early afternoon wx analysis shows strong, ~988mb low pressure
tracking from Ontario into Quebec, with another low pressure
system in the Plains. Locally, temps have risen into the upper
50s-lower 60s under mostly sunny skies and a WSW wind of 10-15
mph. Temps should rise a few more degrees this aftn. The wind
weakens a bit tonight as the pressure gradient temporarily
relaxes. It will initially be mostly clear but mid to high level
clouds begin to build in from the west late tonight as the
system over the Plains tracks ENE into IL/IN. Forecast lows
range from the upper 30s inland to lower-mid 40s along the
coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Mild temperatures continue Tuesday with scattered showers
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening.
- Dry and seasonable weather is expected on Wednesday and
Thursday.
The low pressure system is progged to track from the OH Valley to
the northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, before phasing with a
deepening coastal low near NY/NJ Tuesday night. This system will
drag a cold front through the area Tuesday night. While the
strongest forcing for ascent will miss us to the N/NE...scattered
showers should develop near and north of I-64 Tuesday afternoon
before quickly lifting NE of the area by around midnight Tuesday
night. Highs will warm well into the 60s-70F on Tue (especially
E/SE). Even though dew pts will only rise into the 50s...cooler air
aloft may allow some weak sfc-based instability to develop near the
coast. As such, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out in
coastal VA/MD (best chc of this is on the eastern shore). However,
confidence is too low to add thunder to the forecast grids at this
time. QPFs don`t look great and many areas S of I-64 aren`t expected
to see measurable rain. Areal avg QPFs are close to 0.10" from LKU-
SBY. Cooler/drier wx is expected behind the cold front on Wed/Thu.
As such, expect highs Wed in the 50s and only in the mid-upper 40s
on Thursday. Lows Tue night in the lower-mid 40s, with upper 20s-
lower 30s Wed night. In addition, breezy conditions with westerly
winds is expected on Wed, with frequent gusts of 25-30 mph in the
forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- A disturbance brings a chance for light rain/snow Friday
afternoon and evening across northern and eastern portions of
the area.
- Temperatures trend much colder for the weekend.
- Continuing to keep an eye on the Sunday night-Monday
timeframe. Chances for some sort of winter weather has
increased, but confidence on the details remains low at this
point.
Cold temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected through
most of the extended period as transient high pressure initially
settles over the area. Aloft, brisk zonal/quasi-zonal flow is
expected late Thursday/early Friday, before heights fall in advance
of a digging trough Friday afternoon/evening. This evolution is
likely to lead to sfc low development offshore of the area as strong
cold advection pushes in behind a cold front. Highs Friday warm into
the mid-upper 40s. However, the aforementioned upper disturbance
should spark off increased cloudiness and perhaps some light precip
across northern portions of the area Friday afternoon, transitioning
eastward toward the coast Friday evening and early overnight. While
deep-layer moisture is lacking, forecast soundings support light
snow or a rain/snow mix with temps well below freezing just above
the sfc (sfc temps quickly fall into the 30s by the evening). For
now, only have slight chc PoPs for the Northern Neck, Eastern Shore,
and coastal SE VA/NE NC. Quickly clearing out for Saturday and most
of Sunday as cold Canadian high pressure builds down from the
Midwest. Highs both days struggle to reach 40 F, with mid-upper 30s
expected across the N/NW. Overnight lows also trend cold and lows
Friday and Saturday night in the teens and 20s are expected...
"mildest" at the immediate coast.
Uncertainty then builds Sunday night into Monday as a potent
shortwave ejects out of Desert Southwest and Plains. Some sort of
precip, some potentially of the wintry variety, is looking
increasingly probable by early Monday as sfc low pressure slides
into the Great Lakes region. Most of the uncertainty is present only
because this event remains ~7 days away and perfect agreement among
the model guidance is just not possible at this lead time. For
example, while the deterministic GFS and ECMWF suggest somewhat
similar sfc evolutions and potential winter wx from precip
overrunning a cold low-level airmass, several of their ensembles and
the deterministic Canadian depict quite different solutions. Will
continue to show a chance of snow for most of our area late Sunday
night during precip onset, transitioning to rain/snow around sunrise
Monday, and then rain Monday. Additionally, there are many unknowns
about p-type as soundings show slight differences in the warm nose
magnitude and precip intensity. Thus, will continue to keep p-types
limited to rain and snow and introduce freezing rain and sleet as
confidence increases (if necessary). Either way, the best chance of
winter wx is inland and especially across our northern counties.
Probabilities from the ECMWF ensemble for >1" and >3" snow increased
with this cycle, with ~50% and ~20% respectively...roughly from the
RIC metro and points N and E. Probs from the GEFS and CMC ensemble
are lower so mainly just something to monitor at this point.
Regardless of any wintry wx, there is high confidence in below
average temperatures through most of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EST Monday...
VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the 18z/30 TAF
period. Skies will be mainly clear through Tuesday morning
outside of high clouds (aoa 12000ft AGL). BKN clouds around
3000-5000ft return Tuesday aftn/evening as a fast moving low
pressure system tracks to our north. In addition, shower chances
return to the terminals between 20z Tue-02z Wed (mainly at
SBY...with PoPs only 20-50% elsewhere). Brief flight
restrictions are possible in the showers. Winds become light and
variable tonight as high pressure briefly builds in, then
increase out of the SSE on Tuesday (w/ gusts to 20 kt possible).
Outlook: VFR conditions are likely Wed-Fri behind a seasonably
strong cold front. Breezy conditions with W winds are also
expected each day.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EST Tuesday...
Key Messages:
- Brief lull in Small Craft conditions Tuesday before increasing
again Tuesday night into Wednesday behind cold front.
- Strongest winds expected Wednesday into early Thursday, Gales
are possible across the far northern coastal waters.
- Continued periods of SCA conditions through the rest of the week.
Winds have become west/southwesterly this afternoon as high pressure
briefly builds into the area behind the earlier cold frontal
passage. The remaining SCA headlines for the northern coastal waters
will be allowed to expire at 4pm as scheduled as seas have also come
down below 5ft. Winds will become southeasterly on Tuesday ahead of
an approaching low pressure system and gradually increase to 12-
16kt, with gusts to 20kt along the coastal waters. Seas will slowly
build too, reaching 4-5ft across the northern coastal waters Tuesday
evening. For now, held off on any sea height-only SCAs since it`s
marginal to start with. A few showers are also possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening.
Confidence is higher in SCAs being needed Wednesday morning into
Thursday as stronger CAA filters in behind the cold front. There is
a slight chance of reaching Gales across the coastal waters from
Chincoteague northward. Wind probabilities are 50%+ for the eastern
half of zone 650, but decided to hold off on any sort of Gale
headlines for now since it is such a confined area. Winds subside
later Thursday along with seas falling to 3-4ft for another brief
lull. Friday looks to be another breezy day, but for now stays below
SCA thresholds. Saturday may bring more headlines to the local
waters.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650-
652-654.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...JKP
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