Chesapeake, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS61 KAKQ 271508
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1108 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions with scattered afternoon and evening
storms are expected today. Hot and humid weather persists
through the middle of the week before cooler temperatures
arrive by Friday behind a seasonally strong cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1105 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued for portions of SE VA
  and NE NC today with Heat Advisories in effect elsewhere
  (apart from the MD beaches).

- Scattered storms are likely this afternoon and evening, with
  the highest coverage along and east of I-95. Some of the
  storms could produce damaging wind gusts and/or flooding.

Today will likely be the hottest day of the current heat wave as
temps/dew points are running a degree or two higher than they
were at this time yesterday. Upper ridging centered from the
Deep South to the Carolinas continues to retrograde
today...allowing the flow aloft to become NW by the aftn as
upper heights fall slightly. A shortwave is progged to track
over the area this evening. Forecast highs in the low-mid 90s
and dew pts in the mid to upper 70s will allow max heat indices
to top out around 110F across much of SE VA/NE NC...where the
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through the evening. Heat
Advisories remain in effect elsewhere where max heat indices are
forecast to reach 105-109F. Will note that there is some
potential for brief 110F heat indices across the s-central VA
Piedmont, but will keep the Heat Advisory here as confidence in
prolonged 110F heat indices is lower. Still think that
convection across SE VA/NE NC develops by 2-3 PM...which would
keep part of the warning area from seeing 2-3 hours worth of
110F+ heat indices. However, will keep the warnings going given
that some areas will likely not see convection until the
evening.

As mentioned above, scattered tstms are still expected to form
this afternoon initially along a sea breeze across SE VA/NE NC
and then later this afternoon across the central VA Piedmont and
I-95 Corridor N of Richmond, before becoming a broken line and spreading
SE into the evening. Expect storms to arrive in Louisa/Caroline
Counties and the VA Northern Neck/MD Eastern Shore between 3-6
PM, before reaching the RIC Metro closer to 6-8 PM. The main
line of tstms will likely reach Hampton Roads and the VA Eastern
Shore by 7-10 PM. The 00z HREF still shows a 30% chance for 3"
of rain in 3 hrs from 18-21z/2-5 PM across far SE VA/NE NC where
confidence in locally heavy rain is highest. The greatest
severe threat exists with the above mentioned line (as opposed
to the sea breeze convection) given ample CAPE and the
likelihood for a decent cold pool to form given inverted-V
soundings. Damaging winds are the primary threat. Despite the
lack of dry mid-levels, still think that a few 50kt+ gusts are
possible given the strong sfc heating/instability/LLVL lapse
rates. As such, SPC has maintained a Marginal risk for severe
storms across the entire FA. Additionally, while storms will be
moving, locally heavy rain and flash flooding will be possible
given very high PWATs of 2-2.5". WPC has expanded the Marginal
Risk for Excessive Rainfall across much of the area (outside of
the SW half) to account for the localized flooding potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Hot and humid weather continues through mid week with
  widespread heat indices of 105 to 109F expected each day.

Aloft, the ridge slowly retrogrades early this week to the W.
However, enough of the ridge remains over the area to allow for
continued hot and humid weather. Highs are expected to be mainly in
the mid 90s on Mon (lower 90s across the Eastern Shore) with temps
warming into the mid-upper 90s Tue and Wed. Meanwhile, the humidity
sticks around with mid to locally 70s dew points likely. As such,
widespread heat indices of 105-109F are expected across the area
(perhaps a bit lower across the Eastern Shore). Cannot rule out a
few localized heat indices of 110F across portions of NE NC on Mon,
however confidence is low. As such, widespread Heat Advisories will
likely continue to be needed through at least Wed.

Apart from the heat, scattered storms are possible Mon afternoon
across far SE VA/NE NC (30-50% PoPs). Cannot rule out additional
isolated storms Tue or Wed afternoons, mainly across the
Piedmont, however, confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Widespread showers and storms are likely Thursday into Friday
  as a strong cold front moves south across the area.

- Much cooler weather returns Friday into next weekend.

Aloft, the ridge continues to retrograde W through midweek with a
trough dropping S into the East Coast by late week. A strong ~1028mb
high drops S out of Canada with the trough, pushing a seasonally
strong cold front through the area Thu into Thu night. Uncertainty
exists for Thu regarding the exact timing of the front. If the front
trends faster, then Thu will be cooler with heat indices likely
remaining below Heat Advisory criteria. However, if the front trends
slower, then moisture pooling ahead of the front would allow for
heat indices to approach 105F+ once again with Heat Advisories
potentially needed for a portion of the FA. In any case, once the
convection arrives with the front, a noticeable change in temps
is expected.

Widespread showers and storms are expected Thu afternoon into Fri
afternoon ahead of and behind the cold front. For now, PoPs have
increased to 60-70% across the area. In fact, there is a decent
signal in the models and ensembles in a soaking rain across the
area. While the GEFS and EPS disagree with which day will be
the wettest (the GEFS prefers Thu and the EPS Fri), both
ensembles show the potential for widespread rainfall totals of
0.75-1.25" (locally higher) across the area. Given the signal,
WPC has placed the area under a Slight risk for excessive
rainfall for Thu. The cold front ushers us from the July heat
wave to the August reprieve as highs only in the upper 70s NW to
mid 80s SE are expected on Fri (Aug 1). Highs remain generally
in the lower (locally mid) 80s Sat and Sun with lows in the 60s
inland. In fact, the NBM has lows Sat night only in the upper
50s across portions of Louisa! In any case, relief from the heat
is in sight.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions continue at all sites this morning into
the early afternoon. A stray rain shower cannot be ruled out at
SBY over the next couple of hours. Light and variable winds
this morning become S to SW (~5 to 10 knots). Showers and
thunderstorms develop later this afternoon and evening, with
higher coverage compared to the past few days. PROB30 groups
have been introduced at all TAF sites to account for the
thunderstorm potential. Brief periods of gusty winds and MVFR to
IFR VSBYs (due to heavy rainfall) are possible with any storms
this afternoon and evening. Storms diminish late in the period
with the loss of daytime heating. Will need to watch the
potential for patchy fog early Monday AM, especially in
locations that see rain today.

Outlook: A typical summertime pattern is expected through the
first half of the week with isolated to widely scattered
afternoon/evening showers and storms. Primarily VFR through
Wednesday outside of thunderstorms and any localized IFR
CIGs/VSBYs in the typical spots during the early morning hours
of each day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the middle of
the week. Any stronger winds would be associated with storms that
will be handled with MWS/SMWs.

- A stronger cold front approaches and crosses the waters Thursday
into Friday, leading to the next potential for widespread SCA
conditions.

Early this morning, a weak boundary lingers near the waters with
winds generally out of the SE ~10 knots. Seas are running from 1 to
3 feet, and waves in the bay generally around 1 foot. Shower and
thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening will likely be more
widespread than previous days, with localized stronger winds in
storms. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient prevails
over the waters through Wednesday, with winds 5 to 10 knots or
less, and with daily seabreeze influences expected. A fairly
strong cold front (for the time of year) is expected to impact
the area Thursday into Friday, with high pressure building in
from the N heading into next weekend. While this is still well
out into the extended timeframe, SCAs are likely given decent
CAA over the warm waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of
the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are
expected to be threatened during the weekend, we do have a
chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum temps. We`ve
included both for reference.

*Record AM Lows Sat 7/26:

RIC: 78 (sets a new daily record high min).
ORF: 80 (ties the daily record high min).

(there is a slight chc for late aftn/evening storms which could
drop these temperatures so will not send RERs until the
midnight CLI run).

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27

Date     Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

- 7/26:  100/1940    100/1940   98/2012    97/1995
- 7/27:  101/1940    104/1940  102/1940   100/1940


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Sat 7/26 - Sun 7/27

- Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

- 7/26:    76/1989    80/2016   79/2001     78/2009
- 7/27:    78/2005    80/2020   75/2023     78/2020

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MDZ021>024.
NC...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ012>016-030>032.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ017-102.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ099-100.
     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     VAZ081>084-087>090-092-093-095>097-523>525.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ048-060>062-
     064>069-075>080-085-086-098-509>522.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AJB/LKB
CLIMATE...